Six months before Karnataka 2023, private polling had the race inside a 2% band. The Congress finished with a 135-66 mandate. That gap did not open in the last week, it opened booth by booth over eight weeks.
The urban booths that flipped early
Our booth-level tracking across Bengaluru and Mysuru showed the earliest movement. Roughly 640 urban booths crossed from neutral to Congress-lean six weeks out, driven by concentrated messaging on local governance and cost of living. That was the trigger the state-wide numbers would eventually reflect.
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What campaigns can learn
The 2023 mandate is a reminder that a state-wide 50-50 is compatible with a booth-level 60-40 already in motion. Reading only the state-wide number is reading the wrong signal.
